NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: Can the Packers beat the Cowboys? (2024)

Steven:I’m struggling, but now that we have a month’s worth of info on these teams, I think the results will improve.

(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)

Rams at Seahawks (-1.5)

Charles: Seahawks

Coin flip here, coupled with the weird stuff happens on Thursday thing. But after L.A. got trounced by the Bucs last week, I’ve lost my faith in the Rams especially in a short week.

Steven: Rams

I’ve gone back-and-forth on this one, but I’m going to pick Sean McVay in a matchup he typically wins. We’ll see the Rams offense bounce back and win a somewhat high-scoring game.

Cardinals at Bengals (-3.5)

Charles: Cardinals

It’s the battle of two terrible defenses! I do think Cincy ends up with the win, but my gut tells me it comes down to a field goal as Kyler Murray and David Johnson answer every Bengals score.

Steven: Cardinals

In a toss-up like this, I usually go with the better quarterback. And that’s Murray. Kliff Kingsbury gets his first W.

Falcons at Texans (-4.5)

Charles: Falcons

This feels like one point to big for me to take the favorites, who struggled against the Panthers. I know the Falcons put up a stinker last week, but I’ll say they get unstuck against the Texans’ middling D.

Steven: Texans

I’ve given up hope on the Falcons. They’re just not a good football team. The defense has been bad. Now the offense is right there with it. The Texans offense is due for a big game and I think you’ll see it here.

Ravens at Steelers (+3.5)

Charles: Ravens

This is a reaction Baltimore getting run over by Nick Chubb, and the Steelers found success running the ball on Monday night. But! I’m giving the Ravens one more week of trust against Mason Rudolph.

Steven: Ravens

One little win over the Bengals isn’t enough to convince me the Steelers aren’t a mediocre football team. We’ll start to see this Ravens defense figure some things out, and Lamar Jackson will have no problem out-dueling Mason Rudolph.

Bills at Titans (-2.5)

Charles: Bills

I assume Josh Allen will play with this pick and I think the Bills defense is solid enough to keep Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry in check.

Steven: Titans

I have to admit this is a total guess. I really don’t know what to make of either team. But this game should tell us a lot about Buffalo. If the Bills are going to make a playoff run, they’ll need to take care of mid-level teams like the Titans. I’m not so sure they can.

Jaguars at Panthers (-3.5)

Charles: Panthers

I’m into Minshew Magic as I was last week, until he runs into the league’s best pass defense. Kyle Allen is the QB to back here.

Steven: Jaguars

I’ll take the Panthers to win this game outright, but the Jags defense will keep the game low-scoring. I say it ends 16-13 with Jacksonville just barely covering thanks to a late Minshew TD.

Vikings at Giants (+5.5)

Charles: Vikings

Don’t fall for the trap here. The Giants secondary thrived last week because the Redskins’ QBs were awful. And while you could say that’s an adjective to describe Kirk Cousins, he’s got so many more weapons to take apart Big Blue. That and Daniel Jones will be smothered by the defense.

Steven: Vikings

Agree with Charles. That’s a trap line. The Giants defense remains abysmal and we’ll see a somewhat cathartic performance from a Vikings passing game that has been broken all season. This line is way too small for a game featuring Mike Zimmer taking on a rookie QB.

Patriots at Redskins (+15.5)

Charles: Patriots

Who’s starting for Washington at QB? Who cares?

Steven: Patriots

The line could be 20 and I’d still back the Patriots, whose defense might score a touchdown or two itself.

Jets at Eagles (-13.5)

Charles: Eagles

Hmm. Sam Darnold was practicing on Wednesday, but I don’t see the Jets rushing him back. So I’ll back the team that won’t start Luke Falk.

Steven: Eagles

Even if Darnold plays, he won’t be at full strength. That will take time. I expect the Eagles to get rolling after the Thursday night win in Green Bay.

Raiders at Bears (-5.5)

Charles: Bears

I’ll be shocked if Oakland puts up more than 13 points against the Bears’ D, and Chase Daniel might actually be an upgrade at QB for Chicago.

Steven: Bears

I don’t trust this Raiders team, and the Bears defense still seems to be playing at the same level it did a season ago.

Buccaneers at Saints (-4.5)

Charles: Buccaneers

I’m recklessly buying into what happened last week. At the very least Tampa Bay keeps up with the Saints.

Steven: Buccaneers

The Saints offense can’t move the ball, and while the defense has stepped up since the Drew Brees injury, I don’t know if it’s good enough to slow down a surging Bucs passing attack. I’m taking Tampa straight-up and wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends up a blowout.

Broncos at Chargers (-6.5)

Charles: Chargers

I don’t love this pick with L.A. disappointing me at every turn. But how am I supposed to bet on this Broncos team!?

Steven: Broncos

Denver always seems to play the Chargers tough, and the Broncos have been in pretty much every game they’ve played this season. They’ll keep it within a field goal.

Packers at Cowboys (-3.5)

Charles: Packers

It came down to one X-factor: The Packers defense is really good. It’ll be good enough to keep this game super close.

Steven: Cowboys

After Kellen Moore caught a little heat for a conservative approach against the Saints, I think we’ll see him go back to what was working in Weeks 1 through 3: Letting Dak sling the ball.

Colts at Chiefs (-10.5)

Charles: Colts

This feels like last week’s Bucs-Rams spread (and look how that turned out!). Minus-10.5 for a Colts offense that’s more than good enough to cover? Free money.

Steven: Chiefs

This is a terrible matchup for the Colts’ zone-heavy defense. It won’t stop Patrick Mahomes from lighting up the scoreboard and we’ll see a repeat of last season’s playoff matchup.

Browns at 49ers (-3.5)

Charles: 49ers

The Niners are the team I didn’t see coming, so I’ll back them at home in primetime coming off the bye.

Steven: 49ers

The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league. Having had two weeks to prepare for this one, I expect the better team to be able to cover a smallish spread at home. I’m still not convinced the Browns will live up to the hype.